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October Commentary

Recently announced government policy initiatives spooked the markets.

UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a range of policy measures which jolted risk-assets into reversal, notably a £45 billion proposal of debt-funded tax cuts at a time when inflation is running dangerously high. UK 10-year gilt yields spiked more than 120 basis points to 4.6% in just four days, which prompted the Bank of England to intervene and state it would purchase bonds ‘at what scale is necessary’ to maintain bond market stability. In response to the volatility, sterling sold-off and traded at a 37-year low versus the US dollar. Down -6.1% (UK All Share)

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The future of investing

SPRING IM founders, Simon O’Donoghue and Alfie Greenway, who have more than 45 years’ experience in the sector, recognised that there are many islanders who would like the opportunity to invest their money but wouldn’t qualify in terms of their ‘wealth’ with existing on-island wealth management firms.

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September Commentary

Inflation and a new PM lead to uncertain times for the UK. UK CPI rose to 10.1% to July 2022, up from 9.4% in June, with household budgets bracing for another energy price cap increase in October. The FTSE 100 fell less than US and European indexes, with Small and Mid-cap indexes down 2.03% and 5.46% respectively over the period. The UK is poised for more fiscal policy uncertainty under a new PM. Along with Europe, the energy crisis from Russia’s war in Ukraine looks set to put more pressure on UK food and energy prices. Down 2.4% (UK All Share)

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Why now is a good time to invest

Many first-time investors ask a difficult question: Is now a good time to invest? The simple answer is… yes!

Find out from our experts why now is the right time to plan your long-term investment portfolio.

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August Commentary

Falling commodity prices meant the FTSE100, due to its higher exposure to commodities, lagged other developed equity markets. The Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates by 0.5% as a means to cool inflation, with UK annual inflation rising to a 40-year high of 9.4% in the year to June 2022. While the Conservative Party decides shortly on who will lead the country next, UK economic growth is expected to slow as a result of multiple factors, including nationwide strikes. Up 4.2% (UK All Share)

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July Commentary

UK equity markets were down heavily, particularly in mid-caps. The Bank of England raised rates by a further 25bps to 1.25% and UK CPI YoY inflation reached 9.1%. British manufacturing (as shown by Manufacturing PMI) slowed to a two-year low, and consumer confidence is at a record low. Rising food and energy costs, coupled with rising borrowing costs such as mortgages, means the average UK household has seen negative wage growth. Down -6.2% (UK All Share)

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June insight - When food becomes political

The famous phrase “Let them eat cake” has often been attributed to Marie Antoinette, highlighting the Queen of France’s disregard for the starving peasants’ plight, which helped contribute to the French Revolution in 1789. In reality, the phrase was recorded as early as 1765 by Jean-Jacques Rousseau. However, it does serve to highlight how dangerous it is to underestimate the impact of a starving population. History is filled with examples of political unrest attributed to this issue. As food inflation rises around the world, and the cost of living increases, we have already seen governments begin to recognise this very concern.

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Gobsmacked at the forecourt?

With the average price of petrol almost £1.80 per litre in the UK it now costs £100 to fill a typical family car according to the RAC. No doubt the war in Ukraine, which has led to sanctions on Russia, has had a major impact on recent prices but what other factors are at play?

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June Commentary

Annual UK CPI came in at 9.0% due to spiralling electricity and oil and gas price rises. The FTSE100 was the best performing equity market, attributed to its heavier weighting in energy stocks. The Bank of England raised interest rates to their highest level since 2009, but still warned of a possible recession. As focus turned away from inflation to slowing growth, gilts had their best performance since March 2020. UK GDP rose by 1.3% in the first quarter 2022, vs -0.9% in Q4 21. Up 0.4% (UK All Share).

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Why USD is the only ‘stable coin’

In times of market volatility, especially in equity markets, USD reigns supreme.

Key Points

• The US is less effected by events in Ukraine and their economy seems reasonably strong compared to other countries, despite inflationary pressures overall.

• The US is acting more aggressively in terms of monetary tightening, relative to Europe or Japan.

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